Title:SeaCausal-FL: Federated Fuzzy Causal Learning for Maritime IoT Fault Diagnosis and Counterfactual Reasoning

Abstract:Reliable marine-engine fault diagnosis in maritime IoT is challenged by distributed data ownership, heterogeneous fault distributions, and continuously changing operating conditions. This paper proposes SeaCausal-FL, a federated fuzzy causal learning framework that combines a shared temporal diagnostic path with mechanism-conditioned causal reasoning. An interval type-2 fuzzy layer represents uncertain and overlapping operating mechanisms, while each mechanism is associated with a physics-constrained structural causal model. Before aggregation, locally learned mechanisms are aligned using operating context, causal structure, and conditional intervention-response signatures. Model parameters are then aggregated according to sample, class, mechanism, and mechanism-class evidence instead of client sample size alone. The learned structural equations further support interval counterfactual reasoning through abduction, action, and prediction. Experiments on a marine-engine fault dataset and a real-data-calibrated semi-synthetic causal benchmark show that SeaCausal-FL achieves an average F1 score of 87.07% across four client partitions, with AUROC and AUPRC of 98.98% and 94.81%, respectively. It also maintains strong performance under unseen loads and fault-type omission during training. On the causal benchmark, SeaCausal-FL reaches an Edge-F1 of approximately 0.58 and an Edge-AUPRC of 0.68, reduces coefficient RMSE to about 0.14, and provides favorable counterfactual estimation and intervention decisions.

Bookmark

Bibliographic and Citation Tools

Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article

Demos

Recommenders and Search Tools