Title:Data Leakage Inflates Generalizability of Power Outage Prediction Models

Abstract:Power outage prediction models are increasingly used in assessments of climate-driven infrastructure risk, yet current evaluation practices obscure whether these models generalize to the novel conditions such applications require. We identify three common methodological choices in power outage prediction models that influence their ability to generalize across spatial, temporal, and event-based settings. We compare the predictive performance impacts of different methodological decisions using publicly available data for the U.S. East Coast from 2018 to 2023 and feature sets derived from weather reanalysis and land-cover data, and embeddings from a GeoAI foundation model (Prithvi WxC). Specifically, we assess model performance under multiple test selection strategies, including unfiltered random splits, leave-one-state-out, and leave-one-event-out designs, which increasingly approximate real-world deployment conditions. While random train-test splits yield strong performance, we show that these results are inflated by spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Under spatial and temporal holdout experiments, predictive accuracy degrades substantially, with models often failing to outperform a simple null baseline. Incorporating GeoAI foundation model embeddings yields limited and inconsistent improvements, primarily for spatial generalization, and does not resolve poor event-level transferability. These findings suggest that, given current data availability and evaluation practices, publicly trained outage prediction models offer limited and uncertain operational value. Progress will likely require improved data coverage, more realistic evaluation protocols, and a shift in focus from marginal modeling advances toward addressing structural data constraints.

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