Stochastic Semantic Evidence Graphs: Uncertainty Propagation and Governance for Agentic AI
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Computer Science > Computation and Language
arXiv:2609.29703 (cs)
[Submitted on 3 Sep 2026]
Title:Stochastic Semantic Evidence Graphs: Uncertainty Propagation and Governance for Agentic AI
Authors:Matthew Francis Dixon
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Abstract:AI-agent evaluations usually inspect a final answer, yet error may enter through evidence, retrieval, prompting, generation or decision mapping. We introduce a stochastic semantic evidence graph (SSEG), a hierarchical stochastic DAG whose language node expands into an autoregressive token subgraph and whose observable output may be a law over complete phrases. Semantic reduction and calibration are optional. We define graph-relative local defects and downstream edge influences, derive a pathwise bound on terminal error and use its nodewise terms to diagnose governance triggers. For source provenance, the graph preserves uncertain claim--passage relations and propagates sharp Fréchet bounds rather than assuming independence across sources. Across three open-weight architectures, information-equivalent changes materially alter complete-phrase laws. A controlled experiment yields no certificate violations in 5,000 cases; crossed-RAG and live Brave-retrieval experiments separate retrieval, presentation, source and interaction effects. SSEG therefore turns workflow provenance into a quantitative account of where uncertainty entered, how it propagated and whether an output is qualified for use.
| Subjects: | Computation and Language (cs.CL); Information Retrieval (cs.IR); Machine Learning (stat.ML) |
| MSC classes: | 68T05, 68T20, 68T42, 93E11, 62G05 |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2609.29703 [cs.CL] |
| (or arXiv:2609.29703v1 [cs.CL] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.29703
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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View a PDF of the paper titled Stochastic Semantic Evidence Graphs: Uncertainty Propagation and Governance for Agentic AI, by Matthew Francis Dixon
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