Estimating the Effect of Timing on Coupon Effectiveness
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Statistics > Applications
Title:Estimating the Effect of Timing on Coupon Effectiveness
Abstract:The coupon incentive is one of the most common tools marketers use to court users to engage with a business at various stages of the customer life cycle. A variety of factors can affect the effectiveness of a coupon incentive on users, timing being one of them. We hypothesize that coupons can be more effective when delivered at critical times in the customer journey, right when a user is engaging with the platform. Verifying such a hypothesis would typically require real time event-triggered coupon distribution software that may be too expensive to implement. In this paper, we propose a framework in which we apply causal inference on "natural randomized control trial experiments" to measure the effectiveness of sending coupons at the right time to users without requiring a dedicated AB test. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework in the case of a user onboarding coupon campaign held in our company and show how the results can lead to correct data-driven decisions for the business. Furthermore, in order to test the generalizability of our framework, and to make our research more reproducible, we apply our framework on a user retention campaign with a publicly available dataset.
| Comments: | 12 pages, 5 figures. Published in Proceedings of the 1st Workshop on End-End Customer Journey Optimization, co-located with KDD 2022, August 15, 2022, Washington, DC |
| Subjects: | Applications (stat.AP); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Machine Learning (cs.LG) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2606.30664 [stat.AP] |
| (or arXiv:2606.30664v1 [stat.AP] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.30664
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
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