RAP: Research Attention Prediction Reveals Target-Conditioned Evidence Acquisition Biases
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Computer Science > Artificial Intelligence
arXiv:2609.10092 (cs)
[Submitted on 9 Sep 2026]
Title:RAP: Research Attention Prediction Reveals Target-Conditioned Evidence Acquisition Biases
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Abstract:Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as research agents, yet their ability to track shifts in research attention is difficult to evaluate because reviews and research ideas lack uniquely verifiable outcomes. We introduce Research Attention Prediction (RAP), a rolling benchmark covering 278 AI/ML fields and 1,390 episodes. At each cut-off, an LLM agent searches a temporally restricted arXiv corpus and predicts the next six months' paper shares across eight frozen research directions. Search generally helps, but all four diagnostic models perform worse than an exact-count exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) baseline in compositional accuracy. We identify two linked bottlenecks. Under cumulative-history access, State carry-forward outperforms direct Forecast for all four diagnostic models; frozen-evidence replay links a shared component of this reversal to Forecast-oriented policies retrieving a smaller share of recent evidence. Even with exact historical activity, future-specific updating remains limited, with only GPT-5.5 plus reopened Search slightly surpassing EWMA. Fine-tuning on realised outcomes improves Qwen3-4B's forecast Spearman correlation by 0.105 on held-out fields at later origins, with gains also on change-rich episodes.
| Subjects: | Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computation and Language (cs.CL) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2609.10092 [cs.AI] |
| (or arXiv:2609.10092v1 [cs.AI] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.10092
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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View a PDF of the paper titled RAP: Research Attention Prediction Reveals Target-Conditioned Evidence Acquisition Biases, by Yingqian Wu and 6 other authors
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