Title:Terrain signatures in Welsh settlement names

Abstract:Landscapes are named, but whether names retain measurable environmental information beyond broad geographic structure is rarely tested. We analysed 3,757 Welsh settlements using a frozen, source-audited 24-element lexical framework, preregistered outcome-specific models and geographically structured validation. The central comparison contrasted 101 settlements carrying high-terrain elements (\textit{bryn} or \textit{mynydd}) with 139 carrying low-terrain elements (\textit{cwm} or \textit{pant}). High-terrain names occupied locations 24.4 m higher relative to their 2-km surroundings (95\% CI, 10.8--38.1 m; Holm-adjusted $p$ = 0.00137). The association remained positive across prespecified 1-, 2- and 5-km neighbourhood definitions and was reproduced using an independently produced elevation source (24.1 m; 95\% CI, 10.6--37.6 m). Adding terrain-name polarity to a non-lexical spatial and settlement baseline reduced geographically held-out mean squared error by 4.63\%, 6.22\% and 7.30\% under 10-, 25- and 50-km spatial blocking, respectively, although improvement varied among held-out regions. River-related names provided weaker, directionally consistent evidence, while the preregistered woodland model was non-estimable. Residual spatial structure, unresolved name language and the absence of independent external replication limit interpretation. Selected Welsh settlement-name categories therefore retain measurable information about present-day terrain within Wales, without establishing individual etymology, causal naming, historical environmental memory or transferability to other naming systems.

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