The opening stages of OpenAI’s unraveling, which I first warned about in January 2024 (if not before), have begun.
To begin with, hardly anyone trusts them anymore, which can’t be great for business.
Take the reaction to OpenAIs Sam Altman’s latest announcement, on Tuesday August 18 (i.e., “earlier today” for those of us on the West Coast), that OpenAI would be pausing, ostensibly for safety reasoning:
As far as I can tell, hardly anyone believed him.
The best one line translation came from the user @NIK on X:
Slightly elaborated:
And, here’s where things get worse. It turns out people were very likely right to be skeptical, because The Wall Street Journal’s Berber Jin and Corrie Dribusch just dropped big news:
@cdriebusch via @WSJ ","username":"berber_jin1","name":"Berber Jin","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1823165387501932545/yE5SJ59J_normal.jpg","date":"2026-08-18T22:37:08.000Z","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/HQCdzpJaMAAx039.png","link_url":"https://t.co/fZlM2pomTE"}],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":35,"retweet_count":83,"like_count":583,"impression_count":220310,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">
and then an hour and half later, Jin dropped still further details, also bad for OpenAI:
@cdriebusch @WSJ story is now updated with additional details. openai's losses grew by $3 billion from q1 to q2, to $12.3 billion\n\nnot a great look given that it added only $1 billion in revenue in the meantime, to $6.7 billion","username":"berber_jin1","name":"Berber Jin","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1823165387501932545/yE5SJ59J_normal.jpg","date":"2026-08-18T23:54:27.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":9,"like_count":116,"impression_count":58607,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">
You don’t want your quarterly losses to quadruple right before your IPO.
It’s safe to say all this is good news for Anthropic:
on.wsj.com/4zo2o8y","username":"WSJ","name":"The Wall Street Journal","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/971415515754266624/zCX0q9d5_normal.jpg","date":"2026-08-18T22:52:07.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":25,"retweet_count":22,"like_count":130,"impression_count":144145,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">
And terrible news for OpenAI.
Small wonder Nvidia was trying to cover its bets earlier this week:
@anissagardizy8","username":"GaryMarcus","name":"Gary Marcus","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/2048405471900606464/kPeRHI2z_normal.jpg","date":"2026-08-17T16:28:29.000Z","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/HP7_5AjboAAQQxn.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/bbWwRNOdyx"}],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"SCOOP: We have the details behind one of the largest data center transactions in history.\n\nOur story includes the size and complex mechanics behind Nvidia’s financial guarantee—which has been a sensitive point in recent weeks.\n\nSpoiler: Nvidia will be the exclusive hardware","username":"anissagardizy8","name":"Anissa Gardizy","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1729447423024754688/YV60VKs-_normal.jpg"},"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":22,"like_count":97,"impression_count":8849,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM">
Still, as Ed Zitron and I have both long noted, if OpenAI goes down the damage could spread:
In short, things could well get wild, very soon.
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