Dwarkesh Podcast
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Dwarkesh Podcast news-outlet 10h ago
The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations
The whole OpenAI/Hugging Face story in plain English
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Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028
"Every force is screeching towards centralization."
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Ryan Greenblatt – Human level AIs might build runaway superintelligences by 2032
A debate about recursive self-improvement.
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8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning
Locking in AI safety regulation now is a mistake.
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Why smarter AI models could drive up compute prices 10x
The end of cheap compute?
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Why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years
If a human-level software engineer that could run on an H100 equivalent, at current market rates for software engineers, that H100 should rent for over $250k a year. That’s 15x today’s spot price.
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Adam Brown – Einstein's happiest thought: General Relativity from scratch
And why black holes are the ultimate power plants.
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The Winning Essays for the Big Questions About AI
Abolishing pandemics/ Getting out of the way of AI automation/ Learning from Honk Kong MTR's business model
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Grant Sanderson – AI and the future of math
Math is where we’ll see superintelligence first. What will it look like?
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The next big breakthrough will be AIs learning on the job
Labs are throwing away the most valuable data.
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Ada Palmer – Machiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time
"He begged to work for the regime that tortured him."
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Reiner Pope – Chip design from the bottom up
Working up from basic logic gates to why GPUs, TPUs, FPGAs, and the human brain each look the way they do.
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Notes on pretraining parallelisms and failed training runs.
Deeply researched interviews
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David Reich – Why the Bronze Age was an inflection point in human evolution
"Instead of being quiescent, natural selection is everywhere."
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Blog prize for the big questions about AI
The not-so-secret point of this whole contest is so that I can hire a researcher
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Michael Nielsen – How science actually progresses
The true story of Einstein, Newton, and Darwin
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Terence Tao – Kepler, Newton, and the true nature of mathematical discovery
“And what those stories teach us about how AI will revolutionize math”
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Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute
Plus, why an H100 is worth more today than 3 years ago
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The most important question nobody's asking about AI
“Preface to the highest stakes negotiations in history.”
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Dario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential"
"That's why I'm sending this message of urgency"
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Adam Marblestone — AI is missing something fundamental about the brain
The brain's secret sauce is its reward functions, not its architecture.
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Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)
What are we scaling? I’m confused why some people have short timelines and at the same time are bullish on the current scale up of reinforcement learning atop LLMs. If we’re actually close to a human-like learner, this whole approach of training on verifiable…
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Sarah Paine — Why Russia Lost the Cold War
Oil crisis, Sino-Soviet split, ethnic rebellions, and arms build-up
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Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)
Why I'm moderately bearish in the short term, and explosively bullish in the long term
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