Title:GeoRisk-RAG: A Hierarchy-Aware Risk Framework for Improving RAG Reliability through Selective Answering

Abstract:Current work on improving reliability in large language model (LLM)- generated answers has primarily leveraged Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), knowledge-graph augmentation, and reinforcement learning. While these methods are adept at enhancing and measuring reliability through semantic similarity and faithfulness, they often struggle to distinguish semantic similarity from geographic validity. This is especially critical in natural hazard management domains where geographic granularity (i.e., town vs. city vs. state) is significant for decision-making, as responses valid in one municipality may not transfer to another. In such domains, a confidently wrong answer carries greater risk than abstaining. We present GeoRisk-RAG, a novel hierarchy-aware framework that addresses this geographic-validity gap through selective answering. This framework explicitly estimates geographic applicability using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)-based distance for context retrieval before response generation. Experiments on a novel held-out wildfire-related question-answering (QA) dataset show that GeoRisk-RAG significantly reduces false confidence rates for location-dependent questions, lowering the rate to 0.009 compared with ~0.090 for standard semantic similarity and reranking baselines, while consistently achieving higher human preference alignment. This work provides a more comprehensive assessment of end-to-end RAG pipelines by integrating geographic validity and selective-answering behavior for safer decision-making in geospatial domains.

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