TC-Next: Zero-Shot Multimodal Cyclone Forecasting
Mirrored from arXiv — Machine Learning for archival readability. Support the source by reading on the original site.
Computer Science > Machine Learning
Title:TC-Next: Zero-Shot Multimodal Cyclone Forecasting
Abstract:We present TropicalCycloneNext (TC-Next), a multimodal deep learning model that forecasts tropical cyclone track and intensity at $6$-$24$ h leads by leveraging a foundation model's forecast fields of atmospheric kinematic and thermodynamic fields and GridSat infrared satellite imagery. Trained only on GraphCast forecasts over the Western Pacific (WP), yet reliant only on generic atmospheric variables, TC-Next on GraphCast lowers track error by $15$-$44\%$ and intensity error by a factor of $3$-$6$ relative to a conventional, rule-based tracker, TempestExtremes; applied without retraining to the forecast fields of Pangu-Weather and IFS HRES, it stays ahead of TempestExtremes on both. Applied zero-shot to the generic weather fields of WeatherNext Cyclones on the 2025 WP season, TC-Next attains lower intensity error at every lead time, and lower or comparable track error, compared to that model's specialized direct tracker in a deterministic comparison. Our ablation studies show that our multimodal model is able to utilize the additional modality to improve performance in tracking errors at every lead time and in intensity prediction at longer lead times.
| Comments: | 11 pages |
| Subjects: | Machine Learning (cs.LG); Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (cs.CV) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2609.02085 [cs.LG] |
| (or arXiv:2609.02085v1 [cs.LG] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.02085
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
|
Access Paper:
- View PDF
- HTML (experimental)
- TeX Source
References & Citations
Bookmark
Bibliographic and Citation Tools
Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article
Demos
Recommenders and Search Tools
arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.
More from arXiv — Machine Learning
-
Algebraic Integer Quantization for Machine Learning Applications
Oct 12
-
CircuitTree: Composing Circuits into A Syllable Transcriber
Oct 12
-
Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Visibility from Net Smart Meters: Deployment Regimes and Operational Insights
Oct 12
-
GlucoPRISM: Protocol-Supervised Pretraining for Cross-Cohort Glucose Transfer
Oct 12
Discussion (0)
Sign in to join the discussion. Free account, 30 seconds — email code or GitHub.
Sign in →No comments yet. Sign in and be the first to say something.